Oscar Predictions

Predictions are as follows:

Let me just start by saying this has been a year with amazing films in theaters with so much variety in the genre and subject matter.  Some of them taking on multiple genres--Secret Life of Walter Mitty. So I don't expect to be right on.  Especially with the Academy creating their ballots before the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announce their winners.  The Guilds will have no influence over nominees.  So here is my stab at the predictions.

Best Picture

The best picture nominees will have at the most 10 nominees. With their complicated nominations process, there will likely only be eight or nine.  I'm going to just list ten of my pics and go with the number being at 9 Best Picture nominations.

That said, predicting the Best Picture category right will be a difficult feat that few will accomplish.

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Gravity

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Philomena
Nebraska
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis

alternates: Saving Mr. Banks, August: Osage County, All is Lost, The Butler.

I have a feeling Wolf of Wall Street will be left out this year because of the Academy controversy at the screening and because of a more conservative Academy branch of voters.  Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine will likely get left off the list too.

Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

This was a tough year for actors wanting to make the cut.  I predict Leonardo DiCaprio will barely miss the list as he usually does.

alternates:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Christian Bale, American Hustle

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench, Philomena
Amy Adams, American Hustle

alternate:

I predict Meryl Streep will miss the mark this year because she previously won and probably because of some outspoken comments she made about Disney.  I'm going to leave Amy Adams on the short list.

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County


Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

alternates:

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Will Forte, Nebraksa
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks


Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

alternates:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Scarlett Johansson, Her


Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

David O. Russell, American Hustle
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alexander Payne, Nebraska

It is going to be difficult to choose a fourth director here.  They've only given Marty one Oscar, and that's probably all he will get save for a lifetime achievement award before he dies.  But they like to nominate him a lot.  And his editor who he's worked with for a long time.  Choosing the Cohen brothers seems redundant and the film hasn't really done well with the guilds or box office (Llewyn Davis).  I decided to go with Alexander Payne for Nebraska because of the lack of controversy or redundancy.  He's been given an nod twice and Nebraska has been well recieved, plus its going to get that actor's nod.

alternates:

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze, Her
 Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
Stephen Frears, Philomena
JC Chandor, All is Lost
Lee Daniels, The Butler
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze, Her
Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

I have a feeling Cuaron's Gravity will be left off this list unfortunately, not because it's not good, but because of all the other rich content that was penned this year.

alternates:

Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron, Gravity
Craig Borten, Dallas Buyers Club
Kelly Marcel, Saving Mr. Banks
Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said


Adapted Screenplay
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight

Steve Coogan, Philomena
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

This is a category that drives me nuts right now.  Not usually. Here is why: Tracy Letts wrote the play that August: Osage County is based on, so it should be in the Original Screenplay category because it is originally penned by the same play/screen writer.  

I'm going to be crazy and predict Before Midnight in this category.  I'll leave Terrence Winter off for Wolf of Wall Street yet again.  It was a three hour orgy, so it's not really writing.  

Alternates:

Terrence Winter, Wolf of Wall Street


Editing
Alfonso Cuarón Mark Sanger, Gravity
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers,American Hustle
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
Jeff Buchanan, Eric Zumbrunnen, Her 

Again the fourth one is difficult to predict here.

Alternates:

Daniel P Hanley, Rush
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street

Kevin Tent, Nebraska
Pete Beaudreau, All is Lost
Roderick Jaynes, Inside Llewyn Davis

Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Sean Bobbit, 12 Years a Slave
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini, All is Lost 

I don't want to throw Captain Phillips in this category because I hate the style of cinematography.  Just becuase it's in the Best Picture category does not because it is going to be nominated.  I wish the Hobbit was a genuine contender here because they did some great work on that.  

Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips

Roger Deakins Prisoners
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
John Schwartzman, Saving Mr. Banks
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
Adriano Goldman, August: Osage County

Production Design
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Her
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Alternates:

Inside llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks

Sound Mixing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
All is Lost
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Alternates:

Rush
Captain Phillips

Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
Oz Great and Powerful
Fast and Furious 6
World War Z

Sound Editing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

alternates:

Oz Great and Powerful
Fast and Furious 6
World War Z

Costume Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games

Unfortunately I think The Hobbit might be left out of this category.

alternates:

Oz
The Invisible Woman
The Desolation of Smaug


Original Score
Gravity
All is Lost
12 Years a Slave
Frozen

Saving Mr. Banks

alternates:

Captain Phillips

Her

Animated Feature
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
The Croods

alternate:

Epic


Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

others:

The Lone Ranger
Oblivion
Elysium
Thor: The Dark World
World War Z

Makeup
American Hustle**
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby*
Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Song
[Full List]
"My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)" from "12 Years a Slave"
Atlas (Hunger Games Catching Fire)**
Let It Go (Frozen)**
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)**
Happy (Despicable Me2) **
Sweeter Than Fiction (One Chance) *
Amen (All Is Lost)
Young and Beautiful (Great Gatsby)
Sweeter Than Fiction (One Chance)
Shine Your Way (The Croods)
The Moon Song (Her)
I See Fire The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Last Mile Home (August: Osage County)