Cesar

Oscar Predictions

Predictions are as follows:

Let me just start by saying this has been a year with amazing films in theaters with so much variety in the genre and subject matter.  Some of them taking on multiple genres--Secret Life of Walter Mitty. So I don't expect to be right on.  Especially with the Academy creating their ballots before the Directors Guild and the Producers Guild announce their winners.  The Guilds will have no influence over nominees.  So here is my stab at the predictions.

Best Picture

The best picture nominees will have at the most 10 nominees. With their complicated nominations process, there will likely only be eight or nine.  I'm going to just list ten of my pics and go with the number being at 9 Best Picture nominations.

That said, predicting the Best Picture category right will be a difficult feat that few will accomplish.

Best Picture
12 Years a Slave

Gravity

American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Philomena
Nebraska
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Inside Llewyn Davis

alternates: Saving Mr. Banks, August: Osage County, All is Lost, The Butler.

I have a feeling Wolf of Wall Street will be left out this year because of the Academy controversy at the screening and because of a more conservative Academy branch of voters.  Woody Allen's Blue Jasmine will likely get left off the list too.

Best Actor
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Robert Redford, All is Lost
Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

This was a tough year for actors wanting to make the cut.  I predict Leonardo DiCaprio will barely miss the list as he usually does.

alternates:
Leonardo DiCaprio, Wolf of Wall Street
Oscar Isaac, Inside Llewyn Davis
Christian Bale, American Hustle

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench, Philomena
Amy Adams, American Hustle

alternate:

I predict Meryl Streep will miss the mark this year because she previously won and probably because of some outspoken comments she made about Disney.  I'm going to leave Amy Adams on the short list.

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County


Supporting Actor
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave

Barkhad Abdi Captain Phillips
Daniel Bruhl, Rush
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

alternates:

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Will Forte, Nebraksa
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks


Supporting Actress
Lupita Nyong'o, 12 Years a Slave
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Oprah Winfrey, The Butler
June Squibb, Nebraska
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

alternates:

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine
Scarlett Johansson, Her


Director
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

David O. Russell, American Hustle
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Paul Greengrass, Captain Phillips
Alexander Payne, Nebraska

It is going to be difficult to choose a fourth director here.  They've only given Marty one Oscar, and that's probably all he will get save for a lifetime achievement award before he dies.  But they like to nominate him a lot.  And his editor who he's worked with for a long time.  Choosing the Cohen brothers seems redundant and the film hasn't really done well with the guilds or box office (Llewyn Davis).  I decided to go with Alexander Payne for Nebraska because of the lack of controversy or redundancy.  He's been given an nod twice and Nebraska has been well recieved, plus its going to get that actor's nod.

alternates:

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Spike Jonze, Her
 Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Jean-Marc Vallée, Dallas Buyers Club
Stephen Frears, Philomena
JC Chandor, All is Lost
Lee Daniels, The Butler
John Lee Hancock, Saving Mr. Banks

Original Screenplay
Spike Jonze, Her
Eric Singer, David O. Russell, American Hustle
Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis
Bob Nelson, Nebraska
Woody Allen, Blue Jasmine

I have a feeling Cuaron's Gravity will be left off this list unfortunately, not because it's not good, but because of all the other rich content that was penned this year.

alternates:

Alfonso Cuaron, Jonas Cuaron, Gravity
Craig Borten, Dallas Buyers Club
Kelly Marcel, Saving Mr. Banks
Nicole Holofcener, Enough Said


Adapted Screenplay
John Ridley, 12 Years a Slave
Tracy Letts, August: Osage County
Julie Delpy, Ethan Hawke, Richard Linklater, Before Midnight

Steve Coogan, Philomena
Billy Ray, Captain Phillips

This is a category that drives me nuts right now.  Not usually. Here is why: Tracy Letts wrote the play that August: Osage County is based on, so it should be in the Original Screenplay category because it is originally penned by the same play/screen writer.  

I'm going to be crazy and predict Before Midnight in this category.  I'll leave Terrence Winter off for Wolf of Wall Street yet again.  It was a three hour orgy, so it's not really writing.  

Alternates:

Terrence Winter, Wolf of Wall Street


Editing
Alfonso Cuarón Mark Sanger, Gravity
Alan Baumgarten, Jay Cassidy, Crispin Struthers,American Hustle
Joe Walker, 12 Years a Slave
Christopher Rouse, Captain Phillips
Jeff Buchanan, Eric Zumbrunnen, Her 

Again the fourth one is difficult to predict here.

Alternates:

Daniel P Hanley, Rush
Thelma Schoonmaker, The Wolf of Wall Street

Kevin Tent, Nebraska
Pete Beaudreau, All is Lost
Roderick Jaynes, Inside Llewyn Davis

Cinematography
Emmanuel Lubezki Gravity
Bruno Delbonnel, Inside Llewyn Davis
Sean Bobbit, 12 Years a Slave
Phedon Papamichael, Nebraska
Frank G. DeMarco, Peter Zuccarini, All is Lost 

I don't want to throw Captain Phillips in this category because I hate the style of cinematography.  Just becuase it's in the Best Picture category does not because it is going to be nominated.  I wish the Hobbit was a genuine contender here because they did some great work on that.  

Barry Ackroyd, Captain Phillips

Roger Deakins Prisoners
Philippe Le Sourd, The Grandmaster
Anthony Dod Mantle, Rush
John Schwartzman, Saving Mr. Banks
Hoyte Van Hoytema, Her
Adriano Goldman, August: Osage County

Production Design
Gravity
12 Years a Slave
The Great Gatsby
Her
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Alternates:

Inside llewyn Davis
Saving Mr. Banks

Sound Mixing
Gravity
Lone Survivor
All is Lost
Inside Llewyn Davis
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

Alternates:

Rush
Captain Phillips

Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
Oz Great and Powerful
Fast and Furious 6
World War Z

Sound Editing
Gravity
Captain Phillips
Iron Man 3
Star Trek Into Darkness
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug

alternates:

Oz Great and Powerful
Fast and Furious 6
World War Z

Costume Design
American Hustle
12 Years a Slave
Saving Mr. Banks
The Great Gatsby
The Hunger Games

Unfortunately I think The Hobbit might be left out of this category.

alternates:

Oz
The Invisible Woman
The Desolation of Smaug


Original Score
Gravity
All is Lost
12 Years a Slave
Frozen

Saving Mr. Banks

alternates:

Captain Phillips

Her

Animated Feature
Frozen
The Wind Rises
Despicable Me 2
Monsters University
The Croods

alternate:

Epic


Visual Effects
Gravity
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Iron Man 3
Pacific Rim
Star Trek Into Darkness

others:

The Lone Ranger
Oblivion
Elysium
Thor: The Dark World
World War Z

Makeup
American Hustle**
Dallas Buyers Club
The Great Gatsby*
Hansel & Gretel Witch Hunters
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Jackass Presents: Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger

Song
[Full List]
"My Lord Sunshine (Sunrise)" from "12 Years a Slave"
Atlas (Hunger Games Catching Fire)**
Let It Go (Frozen)**
Ordinary Love (Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom)**
Happy (Despicable Me2) **
Sweeter Than Fiction (One Chance) *
Amen (All Is Lost)
Young and Beautiful (Great Gatsby)
Sweeter Than Fiction (One Chance)
Shine Your Way (The Croods)
The Moon Song (Her)
I See Fire The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug)
Last Mile Home (August: Osage County)

Top 10 Films of 2013 Preview

Making a Top Ten

This movie watcher is almost ready to make a Top Ten list.  There are a few I need to watch by either renting or attending inexpensive showings.  That said, the list might not be out until February, but I hope to compile what a normal critic would.

Making a Top Ten is tricky.  You want to leave room for your favorites while acknowledging that there are others that were technically more solid films.  Plus there are multiple genres that need mentioning.  At the end of it all, you have to enjoy the films you put on this list.

For now, let's analyze the year and take a look at what worked and what did not work in the world of cinema.  Some of the movies I discuss will likely make my top ten.  Since I cannot attend every film, because I'd be broke, I can come up with a solid list and go to movies and rent them based on word of mouth and personal interest.  For instance, I was anticipating Gravity for a long time, because of its solid marketing campaign, and upon seeing it and tracking its box office and reviews, I'm super happy with that film.

And in another case, I will NOT be seeing Wolf of Wall Street after hearing nasty reviews and looking at the running time, basically 3 hours.  Lots of top critics said it was boring.  Unless some trusty sources say different, I'll leave that off my "to see" list, it definitely DID NOT make the "to-see-in-theaters" list.  Too many comments about bordom, its "C" rating on Cinemascore, Academy Members walking out in the middle, and word of orgies and pornographic scenes are just a few reasons not to see it.  I've really appreciated Leonardo's work lately, but this seems a lot like Gatsby, and even Django.  His characters are starting to carry a motif of gluttony that is getting old.

Enough of that, here are some of my favorites so far:

The Year in Cinema

Unless there are an exceptional amount of animated films, I will usually only include my favorite one in the top ten list.  This year I'm guessing Frozen and The Wind Rises will duke it out.

I Have not Seen The Wind Rises yet but I'm looking forward to it. I've enjoyed all of Miyazaki's work.

Expect The Hobbit to be somewhere on there.  I loved this second outing to Middle Earth regardless of what people are saying about it.

Another favorite is Gravity, almost a short film, it is very tightly montaged into 1 hour and 1/2 running time with plenty of stuff that will blow you away. I looked forward to it all year when I learned who was in it and who the filmmakers were.  It was amazing.










Pacific Rim was the best summer movie in my opinion. Best monsters, and action scenes in a long time.  The story was deeper than a 2 dimensional action flick too which was nice.  People had feelings and crap.












12 Years a Slave will also likely make the list, Solomon Northrop's journey is unmissable, everyone needs to see this film.  It is crazy to think that this happened not too long ago.

Another one of my favorites was The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, it is really an inspiring piece by Ben Stiller--people criticized it for having multiple genres, but I believe that is what made it stand out and that is where it drew its strength.

 I loved Catching Fire, but somehow it is not as memorable to me as other films this year and even the first Hunger Games. It was still solid and better than the first film, it had an ending like Empire Strikes Back.















There are a few films I have yet to see.

Blue Jasmine
Her
Inside Llewin Davis
Mud
American Hustle
Philomena
Fruitvale Station
MAndela
Prisoners
Enough Said
All is Lost
Saving Mr. Banks
Nebraska
Don Jon
The Wind Rises


Have Seen That are worth leaving on a Top Ten List:
The Butler****
Gravity *****
12 Years a Slave*****
Frozen****
The Great Gatsby***
The Secret Life of Walter Mitty****1/2
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug****1/2
Captain Phillips***1/2
The Croods****
Catching Fire****1/2
The Wolverine***1/2
Pacific Rim****
Elysium ***1/2
Philomena ****
(5 Stars is the most)


Probably Will NOT see unless more good word of mouth circulates:
August: Osage County
Wolf of Wall Street

Other Movies I've seen:
Monsters University ***
Iron Man 3 ***
Man of Steel ***
Lone Ranger ***
Oz the Great and Powerful ***
Thor 2 ***
Despicable Me 2 ***
The Heat ***
Ender's Game ***
The Internship **
Anchorman 2 ***



Boxoffice

It was a year where a lot of unexpected things happened as far as box office returns go. Unpredictable gems showed up, there were lots of risks taken by studios, and there were huge flops. The summer blockbusters were underwhelming save for Iron Man 3 and Pacific Rim.

Box Office Success

A few animated films rocked it.
Frozen, The Croods, Monsters Univeristy, and Despicable Me 2 were solid, almost all of them closing north of $200 million, with the exception of Croods.  Frozen will pass $300 million soon, and Despicable Me 2 closed at $367 million.  Most notable is Frozen's ability to stay at the top of the box office 7 weeks after it was opened.  A rarity in movies today.

Marvel and Disney are good to go.
Their recipe for success is still working and DC comics from Warner Bros. is taking notes by planning a Batman Vs. Superman for 2015. Thor 2 made an improvement over its predecessor and will close at a little over $200 million.  Iron Man 3 is sitting comfortably at the top of 2013's highest grossing films.  Soon to be surpassed by...

Hunger Games: Catching Fire
The success of this franchise is not slowing down.  With a very strong opening of $158 million.  It is one of the highest openings for a 2D film.  It will soon surpass Iron Man's box office in the next few days.

Gravity
This film did really solid business domestically and internationally considering it had no previously written source material, it was not a sequel, and not a major franchise.  It opened very solidly at $55 million and stayed number 1 at the box office for 3 weekeneds consecutively in October with no other competition. A smart move for Warner Bros. It closed at around $255 million.

The Desolation of the Box Office
The Hobbit 2. With general audiences not appreciating the first film as much, the second Hobbit opened to around  $73 million ($10 million dollars lower than its predecessor).  A solid opener for a December film. It has a chance at reaching $280- $300 million domestically (in my opinon) and it will likely reach around $1 billion worldwide, being only the second film this year to do so behind Iron Man.  The Hobbit also stayed number 1 at the box office for 3 weekends in a row like Gravity and Fast and Furious earlier in the year. It did not do the same sort of business as Unexpeced Journay a year ago but it did solid business nonetheless. It helped close the year off as one of the biggest box office years in history for Hollywood.



Box office failures

Lone Ranger was unfortunately NOT a success financially. I say unfortunately because it was a film that was largely shot in the region I'm from, New Mexico.  I am a huge fan of Johnny Depp and his work, I think of him as a modern day Charlie Chaplin and his comedic timing was perfect on Lone Ranger and in all his movies. This was a film on a huge budget, likely north of $200 million and it flopped. Only making $29 million its opening weekend and then staggering to a $89 million halt, it was forgotten by filmgoers despite large marketing campaigns by Disney.  Disney will take a huge right-off for this project somewhere around $200 million when considering the addition of its marketing budget.  I personally enjoyed it thoroughly, perhaps it was because I'm a fan of the southwest, westerns and Johnny. Or maybe because I just decide to let go of my suspension of disbelief sometimes to enjoy a movie.  I thought it had remarkable cinematography, stunts, special effects, and comedic timing.  Moviegoers missed out by skipping Lone Ranger.  


47 Ronin
The moment I saw a trailer for this picture, I thought to myself, this looks interesting, but I need a good reason to go watch it.  The martial arts was not selling it to me, the special effects looked ok, they revealed a cool looking dragon, and some interesting looking action scenes.  But what made the movie flop from the start was the decision to keep the title 47 Ronin.  Who is going to remember that and what makes it unique and special?  It would have been more interesting to call this thing Dragon Killers, Samurai Vs. Cowboy, or Keanu Reeves Tries to Make a Comeback. No one is going to remember that title. In fact, when I first wrote down the name of the film just now, I wrote 49 Ronin and struggled to remember the second word.  It only made $10 million in its first weekend, which is very bad for a $150+ million film.  It will only get worse from here, it has a bad Cinema Score and no word of mouth.  Plus a very low Rotten Tomatoes Rating. Below 20%.


Ender's Game was pretty good! I think the reasons why the masses decided to avoid Ender's Game was surrounding some of the Orson Scott Card's positions on Gay Marriage.  The film started at number one at the box office and did not hold well as Hunger Games: Catching Fire hit theaters the very next weekend. Closing at a low $61 million.


After Earth looked promising.  Good cast, (Father and son Smiths) and directed by M. Night Shyamalon.  He has not made good stuff ever since his last critical (though not financial) bomb Avatar: the Last Airbender.  There was just no attendance or solid word-of-mouth, and a poor Rotten Tomatoes Score.  It closed at a low $60 million.